Protectionism and Technology Race Through High Tariffs and Technology Blocks

Tim Redaksi August 25, 2025 0

Dede Farhan Aulawi (Personal Doc.)

By: Dede Farhan Aulawi

The year 2025 marks a pivotal moment in global geopolitical developments, with power dynamics between nations undergoing significant transformation. Amid rising tensions, the focus of power is shifting from the West to the East, particularly with the emergence of new powers in Asia.

IT WILL Be Very Interesting to examine the dynamics of geopolitical change throughout 2025. This is especially true for analysts, who can examine each variable that impacts a country's sovereignty and security. Geopolitical change essentially refers to shifts in the relationships of power and influence between countries worldwide.

These changes are often triggered by factors such as economic growth, technological development, demographic changes, and military power dynamics. Some examples of significant geopolitical changes include the shift in the center of economic power from the West to Asia, competition between superpowers, and the emergence of influential non-state actors.

Changes in the Global Order and Multilateralism

Several points can be highlighted if we examine them in more detail. First, the post-Cold War world order is crumbling, with the United States' dominance weakening and the emergence of a more unstable and competitive multipolar world. Furthermore, aggressive tariff policies are disrupting the global trade and financial system and threatening the international order. Also the emergence of a “Geopolitical Recession”: an era of polarization and fragmentation, although optimistic economic growth is still possible if additional crises can be avoided.

Second, Trade Fragmentation & US Protectionist Tariffs. The Trump administration implemented drastically high tariffs, with the average effective US tariff reaching 18.2%, the highest since 1934, and has triggered fragmentation of the global trading system. Lazard and the WEF noted the potential for major disruption in supply chains and global trade alliances resulting from these protectionist measures.

Third, the emergence of New Blocs & Alliances. In Asia, China is seizing the opportunity to expand its geopolitical influence, including within the BRICS framework. At the BRICS Summit on July 17, 2025, in Rio de Janeiro, the declaration focused on developing AI governance, global health, and global security reform. India is scheduled to take over the chairmanship in 2026. In Europe, strategic initiatives have emerged, such as the Weimar+ alliance, which brings together France, Germany, Poland, the United Kingdom, Spain, Italy, and the European Commission to reduce dependence on US foreign policy and strengthen military and economic support for Ukraine. The EU–Central Asia Summit (April 2025 in Samarkand, Uzbekistan) resulted in new strategic partnerships and an investment package worth US$13.2 billion.

Fourth, Technology, Digital Geopolitics, and AI Resilience. Competition in AI, quantum, and semiconductor technologies has become a new battleground for power, with the formation of fragmented technology blocs between the US and China. The BRICS Declaration to regulate AI inclusively through the UN highlights that this technology is becoming an arena for global diplomacy. The "Made in China 2025" program continues to encourage China to dominate strategic sectors such as AI, 5G, and biotechnology.

Fifth, the Coordination of Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea (CRINK) as an Anti-Western Alliance. The term CRINK refers to cooperation between China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea, an unofficial but closely aligned group of countries that seek to provide an alternative to Western hegemony.

Sixth, European Security and Military Policy. The European Union is increasingly pushing for rearmament: as early as 2025, proposals to allocate half of the defense procurement budget to the EU industrial sector and the €800 billion ReArm Europe program emerged in response to global security uncertainty.

Seventh, the rise of regional powers and the Global South. Significant geopolitical developments involve the growing role of Global South countries such as India, Brazil, Africa, and the Asia-Pacific region, which are becoming increasingly strategically autonomous. India is deepening strategic ties with Japan and Germany to maintain stability in the Indo-Pacific.

Eighth, the challenges of climate, migration, and social crises. The climate crisis is increasingly triggering mass migration and regional conflicts, which are driving the need for more adaptive and humane migration policies and global governance.

Thus, the current world order is increasingly fragmented. The old multilateral system is declining, replaced by a multipolar order with stronger regional bargaining power. The protectionist and technological race through high tariffs and technology blocs is leading a shift in global alliances. New alliances are forming, such as BRICS, Weimar+, and the EU–Central Asia strategic partnership, becoming new pillars of cooperation. Military and AI are dominating future diplomacy, where control over security and technology is key to global influence. The power of the Global South is increasing, marking a transformation in the world power landscape.

Editor: Amalikasyari

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